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type="text/css"></style> <div id="ct" class="ct2 wp cl"> <div class="mn"> <div class="bm_haa cl"> <div class="bm_h cl"> <a href="http://www.oecr.com/portal.php?mod=rss&catid=57" class="y xi2 rss" target="_blank" title="RSS">订阅</a><h1 class="xs2">文章</h1> </div></div> <div class="kjkjb"> <div class="bm vw" style="margin-bottom:0;"> <div class="h hm"> <div class="zxtoux"><img src="http://www.oecr.com/uc_server/avatar.php?uid=54876&size=small" /></div> <h1 class="ph">前景未明的2011车市 </h1> <p class="xg1"> 时间：2010-12-24 09:08<a class="zz" href="home.php?mod=space&uid=54876">作者：update</a> 阅读<em id="_viewnum">(1232)</em> 评论: 0</p> <div class="zxfb" ><a href="http://www.oecr.com/portal.php?mod=rss&catid=57" class="y xi2 rss" target="_blank" title="RSS">订阅</a></div> </div> <!--[diy=diysummarytop]--><div id="diysummarytop" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <div class="s"> <div class="ss"><div><span>导读： </span>随着各地治堵方案的频频出台、购置税优惠政策到期取消，原就属销售旺季的岁末车市再增热度。绝大多数经销商都出现了小排量车供不应求的局面。然而，如此透支未来销量，明年的汽车业将面临怎样的考验？</div> </div> <!--[diy=diysummarybottom]--><div id="diysummarybottom" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <div class="d"> <!--[diy=diycontenttop]--><div id="diycontenttop" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="vwtb"><tr><td id="article_content">随着各地治堵方案的频频出台、购置税优惠政策到期取消，原就属销售旺季的岁末车市再增热度。绝大多数经销商都出现了小排量车供不应求的局面。然而，如此透支未来销量，明年的汽车业将面临怎样的考验？<BR><BR>根据计划，北京将于今日（23日）公布治堵方案，有市民担心治堵方案会对购车造成限制，都扎堆在年底购车。而另据媒体援引发改委官员消息透露，随着国内汽车消费刚性需求与潜力逐步提升，明年购置税优惠政策会取消。<BR><BR>国家信息中心资源部主任徐长明在接受媒体采访时也表示：购置税取消已经没有悬念。<BR><BR>2008年底，在全球经济危机最严重的时候，中国政府出台了《汽车产业调整和振兴规划》，用多种鼓励政策拉动汽车消费。其中之一便是，从2009年开始，对1.6升及以下排量乘用车实行购置税减半增收的政策。在这个政策的带动下，小排量车销售增长迅猛，中国汽车市场也在当年登上了全球第一产销大国的位置。<BR><BR>2010年，购置税优惠政策得到延续，只是优惠幅度比之前的减半略有上升，对1.6升及以下排量乘用车购置税暂减按原有四分之三的税率征收，并增加了对节能惠民车型予以3000元补贴的政策，很多小排量车在此范围内。在这两个政策带动下，今年车市继续高速增长。<BR><BR>前11个月，中国汽车累计产销量分别达到1640万辆和1639万辆，同比分别增长了33.71%和34.05%，全年有望突破1800万辆大关，继续保持汽车产销世界第一的龙头地位。<BR><BR>有业内人士预计，近两年超常规增长的车市很可能将回归常态。不过，中国才刚刚步入汽车社会，汽车保有量较低，随着经济的增长和居民财富的增加，中国汽车市场仍将继续保持稳定增长态势。<BR><BR>机构则普遍预测明年中国车市销量将突破2000万辆大关，整体增速在10%-20%之间。正在举办的广州车展透露的信息也<a href="http://display.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">显示</a>，各大整车厂也是依旧看多明年车市，2011年的销量目标增幅大多在10%以上。<BR><BR>不过，徐长明认为，随着年底的到来，多项优惠政策行将到期，购置税只是其中之一，还包括汽车下乡、以旧换新等政策即将取消的预期，这些政策性因素综合起来，将对明年车市产生很大的影响，尤其是微型车。<BR><BR>过去两年，微型车市场几乎享受了上述所有的优惠政策，各车企纷纷上马微型车项目，该领域产能已经出现过剩的苗头。据不完全统计，截至今年8月，全国在建和扩建的微车生产基地新增产能多达275万辆，约为2009年全国微车销量的1.5倍。<BR><BR>汽车分析师贾新光认为，2011年车市将面临大考，微型车危险。更有分析指出，过快激增的市场销量和汽车保有量，同时也给整个社会带来难以承受的负重。过快的石油消耗造成的国家能源安全问题，因汽车尾气排放导致环境污染的加重，以及道路拥堵造成的种种社会弊病。因此，中国汽车市场的“大”并不是最终的追求，整个产业的“强”才是中国汽车业努力的方向。</td></tr></table> <!--[diy=diycontentbottom]--><div id="diycontentbottom" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <script src="data/cache/home.js?eOg" type="text/javascript"></script> <div id="click_div"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="atd"> <tr><td> <a href="http://club.oecr.com/home.php?mod=spacecp&ac=click&op=add&clickid=1&idtype=aid&id=1423&hash=eaa4d32680c62fd15230d364768e7694&handlekey=clickhandle" id="click_aid_1423_1" onclick="showWindow(this.id, this.href);doane(event);"> <img src="static/image/click/jidan.gif" alt="" 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