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<div class="ss"><div><span>导读： </span>春节前夕，DeepSeek横空出世，并以迅雷不及掩耳之势，在海内外科技圈和资本市场掀起滔天巨浪。</div> </div> <!--[diy=diysummarybottom]--><div id="diysummarybottom" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <div class="d"> <!--[diy=diycontenttop]--><div id="diycontenttop" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="vwtb"><tr><td id="article_content"><div> 春节前夕，DeepSeek横空出世，并以迅雷不及掩耳之势，在海内外科技圈和资本市场掀起滔天巨浪。</div><div><br></div><div> 凭借其独特且先进的技术路径、更低的成本、更高的模型性能以及开源战略等优势，DeepSeek为AI行业带来了撼动性的“鲶鱼效应”。</div><div><br></div><div> 由于算力逻辑受到冲击，DeepSeek成为华尔街“黑天鹅”，算力龙头英伟达及一众美股科技股在恐慌中暴跌。</div><div><br></div><div> 与此同时，当地时间1月28日，国内外多家光子学龙头的股价亦应声大幅下挫，Lumentum、Coherent和Fabrinet股价均暴跌20%左右。ASML（光刻设备供应商）股价下跌6%。</div><div><br></div><div> 国内来看，A股市场的AI产业链同样受到波及，资本市场光<a href="http://ofc.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">通信</a>龙头“易中天”——即新易盛、中际旭创和天孚通信在近5个交易日分别下跌26.43%、23.48%和25.87%。其他光模块、光芯片等上市公司的股价也一度下探。</div><div><br></div><div> 这背后的原因是——DeepSeek作为免费且开源的AI助手，运行成本远低于ChatGPT等竞争对手。相比之下，ChatGPT则需要依赖高端技术和配备高速光学收发器的专业数据中心，带来了昂贵的成本。</div><div><br></div><div> 风头悄变：DeepSeek对AI影响长期积极</div><div><br></div><div> 1月底DeepSeekAI发布LLM进展后，科技股出现剧烈波动</div><div><br></div><div> CoherentCEOJimAnderson：客户订单和长期预测未发生显著变化</div><div><br></div><div> 长期展望：类似DeepSeek这样的AI技术进步降低AI计算成本，使AI更普及，对Coherent长期发展的市场趋势而言是积极的。</div><div><br></div><div> “任何降低AI成本并扩大AI应用的技术发展，长期来看都是市场的积极信号。”——JimAnderson</div><div><br></div><div> 近几年，美国政府已禁止向中国出口最高规格的AI芯片和制造设备，部分原因是希望放缓中国在AI计算领域的发展。然而，DeepSeek的横空出世，可能意味着这一战略的有效性正在受到挑战。</div><div><br></div><div> 大咖观点：光子学在AI产业中发挥关键角色</div><div><br></div><div> 虽然业界对DeepSeek的技术实力仍存疑虑，但市场担忧美国科技巨头或将重新评估AI数据中心的庞大投资计划，甚至可能缩减原定于2025年及以后的开支。</div><div><br></div><div> 在1月28日的SPIE全球商业峰会（PhotonicsWest期间举行）上，多位光子学行业专家强调了光子技术在AI基础设施建设中的核心作用。</div><div><br></div><div> Coherent首席市场官SanjaiParthasarathi表示，当前通信行业的“超级趋势”都围绕AI发展，尤其是AI芯片集群之间的光学互连需求。</div><div><br></div><div> MKSInstrumentsCEOJohnLee强调了AI计算对高端封装技术的依赖，指出高速<a href="http://laser.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">激光</a>微孔钻孔在先进PCB生产中的关键作用，使英伟达等公司能够将多颗最先进芯片封装在一起，提高计算速度。</div><div><br></div><div> 瑞银（UBS）经济学家MikeRyan则在峰会开幕演讲中表示，尽管对DeepSeek仍需保持谨慎，但如果其技术表现符合宣传中的那样，可能会成为AI行业的“游戏规则颠覆者”。</div><div><br></div><div> 根据<a href="http://ofc.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">光通信</a>国外市场调研机构Dell’OroGroup最新发布的一份报告，AI后端网络中的交换机支出预计将在2025-2029年间突破1000亿美元。2024年，Celestica、华为和NVIDIA在该市场中处于领先地位，但2025年可能出现重大市场变革。</div><div><br></div><div> “尽管DeepSeek近期宣布推出资源占用大幅减少的开源模型，市场对AI加速基础设施支出的前景存在担忧，但我们仍预计高端加速器及其配套基础设施的需求将保持强劲。”——SamehBoujelbene，Dell’OroGroup副总裁</div><div><br></div><div> 国内跟进：国产AI芯片及算力产业链迅速接入</div><div><br></div><div> 眼下，DeepSeek已在国内外引爆AI“烧钱大战”。</div><div><br></div><div> 国内相关产业链来看，烽火通信旗下长江计算迅速行动，推动DeepSeek本地化部署。永鼎等<a href="http://b.oecr.com/company" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">企业</a>也已接入DeepSeek模型，共同探索人工智能技术的无限可能。</div><div><br></div><div> 同时，国产大模型及算力产业链也在加速成熟，DeepSeek获得了16大国产AI芯片的支持，这一联盟进一步提升了其在国内市场的竞争力。</div><div><br></div><div> 今日，工信部称，在2025年春节期间，中国移动、中国电信、中国联通三家基础电信企业均已全面接入DeepSeek开源大模型，并在多场景、多<a href="http://b.oecr.com/sell" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">产品</a>中实现应用。</div><div><br></div><div> 中国十大云巨头均已支持DeepSeek。此外，有传闻称阿里巴巴计划以10亿美元投资DeepSeek，虽然阿里巴巴副总裁随后辟谣，但这一消息仍然引起了资本市场的广泛关注和热烈讨论。</div><div><br></div><div> 这些关键事件不仅展现了DeepSeek在国内外的广泛影响力，也预示着其在未来将继续发挥重要作用，引领人工智能技术的创新发展。</div><div><br></div><div> 未来，AI数据中心的投资走向、美国科技巨头的应对策略，以及光子学行业的调整，将成为市场关注的焦点。</div><div><br></div><div><p microsoft="" yahei",="" simsun;="" background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);="" text-align:="" center;"="" 255);"="" center;="" style="word-wrap: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(143, 143, 143); font-family: Tahoma, "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.oecr.com/data/attachment/portal/202404/12/093958rszee6k8hhykve3w.jpg" target="_blank" style="word-wrap: 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